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your one-stop brief for trending disinfo 
in central & eastern europe

 By SCIENCE+ team 5/6/2024


Presented by SCIENCE+ and Free Press for Eastern Europe

Dear readers,

The consequences of the disinformation wave that has hit Europe in the past few years may culminate in this week’s European Parliament elections as millions of people across the continent go to the polls to choose their new representatives. Between 6-9 June, voters in 27 countries will shape the direction of the EU over the next five years as right and far-right parties promise to make significant gains based on recent polls. Their rise has often been driven by false storylines about Russia’s war in Ukraine, the integration of Ukrainian refugees and attacks on Western values that consistently divided societies in Central and Eastern Europe. 

These trends align with our long-term observations of the regional media landscape enabled by Science+’s AI-powered disinformation database Katalin. Four of the seven key metanarratives we previously identified have been central to election campaigns and repeatedly exploited to shape public opinion on false premises. These include: 1) anti-Ukraine, 2) anti-system, 3) anti-migration, and 4) anti-science. Let’s take a look at some specific patterns and storylines as we prepare for Europeans to cast their ballots.



 BREAKING THE NARRATIVE  

KEY TAKEAWAYS

  • Disinformation has boosted right and far-right parties in the European Parliament elections, potentially affecting the results significantly.

  • Key false narratives—anti-Ukraine, anti-system, anti-migration, and anti-science—have been central to shaping public opinion during election campaigns.

  • Russian campaigns have aimed to undermine trust in the EU and NATO, spread falsehoods about Western failures, and discredit European leaders to erode EU credibility.

  • Disinformation targeting the EU's Green Deal and migration policies has sparked protests and fueled xenophobia, influencing voter sentiment and behavior.

RUSSIA AGAINST THE WEST. Since the start of the full-scale invasion, Russian disinformation efforts have consistently focused on undermining trust in the European Union and NATO. We found that campaigns that align with Russian geopolitical interests often highlight alleged Western hypocrisy and failures (1, 2, 3), predict EU disintegration (1, 2), spread lies about Russia (1, 2, 3), and accuse the EU of fascism (1, 2) and limiting free speech. According to EUvsDisinfo reports (1, 2, 3), the Kremlin also smears European leaders through invented scandals, misrepresentations, or identity cloning to deceive target audiences. Additionally, it foments discontent within EU Member States and erodes the EU's credibility. In our Katalin database, we have collected a huge number of examples of Russian disinformation in CEE (see: 1, 2, 3). 

FEAR OF WAR. With Ukraine being allowed to hit Russia with Western weapons, talks of escalation have played a central role in the political debate, allowing anti-Western candidates to push the pro-Kremlin “peace” narrative. For over two years, thanks to Katalin, we have examined thousands of examples of disinformation on the topic of war in Ukraine (see: 1, 2, 3), which together have been viewed over 2 billion times. Now, Russian-sympathetic candidates try to capitalize on the Kremlin talking points that have been amplified in CEE since February 2022. Factcheck highlighted fearmongering in Bulgaria where voters will elect not only EU representatives but also a new national assembly. With that in mind, the campaign has offered an opportunity to Brussels opponents to gain support. A former public radio journalist joined the far-right party Revival suggesting the country should reassess its NATO membership. His recent post labeling the alliance "the biggest threat to Bulgarian national security" went viral on Facebook. Poland also saw the same baseless claims as a false alert about an upcoming partial mobilization was published on the website of the Polish Press Agency. Demagog cited authorities claiming this was a hacker attack, and more similar propaganda may pop up again. 

DEMONIZING BUREAUCRATS. Across the region, the disinformation landscape is heavily influenced by Euroscepticism, with politicians frequently portraying the EU as an overreaching entity. This narrative is bolstered by nationalist and conservative media outlets, engaging hundreds of thousands of users on social media platforms. In an interview fact-checked by Lakmusz - which so far has garnered 130,000 views on YouTube - Hungarian PM Viktor Orbán reinforced the idea of European bureaucrats infringing on national sovereignty. Orban falsely claimed Manfred Weber of the European People's Party (EPP) wanted to introduce EU-wide compulsory military service. Another false storyline in Czechia, debunked by iROZHLAS claimed Brussels "satraps" self-approved retirement at the age of 50, which the EU itself refuted. Similarly, numerous posts on Bulgarian social media target the EU with baseless accusations that the Union has prohibited eating yogurt and wearing jeans, Factcheck.bg reported.

GREEN POLICIES. In our previous editions (1, 2, 3) we wrote about how the Green Deal ignites Europe's political climate before elections. With Katalin, we have investigated dozens of examples of this phenomenon (see: 1, 2, 3). Disinformation campaigns accuse the EU of various misdeeds, targeting Brussels regulations on electric cars, alternative energy, agriculture, food restrictions, insect additives in food, and rising electricity prices, particularly in Central and Eastern European countries. These policies have triggered mass farmers’ protests in some countries over fears of destroying agriculture, banning home vegetable gardens, flooding fields for peatland irrigation, and imposing new taxes on farmers for heating their homes. Such topics have laid the groundwork for disinformation campaigns, which began a year before the European Parliament elections.

MIGRATION AND XENOPHOBIA. Another strand in the electoral discourse is the EU's migration politics. The new Migration Pact has been criticized by both liberals and conservatives (here and here). The latter have advocated for stricter rules. But their arguments have often been strengthened through disinformation portraying migrants as violent criminals incapable of adapting to European lifestyles and sometimes calling for mass deportations. Misleading content suggests that the EU deliberately encourages uncontrolled immigration and grants migrants special benefits at the expense of citizens. One particular example originates in Poland, where right-wing parties, like Konfederacja and Suwerenna Polska, claim the country will be forced to accept migrants or pay €20,000 (1, 2), without providing context or claiming these policies are a result of other countries' struggles. Another viral X post seen by over 500k users connects the attack with Slovak PM Robert Fico's rejection of the EU Migration Pact. Such disinformation fuels anti-immigration sentiment, exaggerates anti-migrant rallies, and can influence EU election results, as it gives politicians coverage in the tens to hundreds of thousands of views among potential voters.

LESSONS FROM A SPECIAL PROJECT. In the current election cycle, Slovakia (similar to Bulgaria) has seemed particularly vulnerable to Russian disinformation. A number of Putin admirers and a neo-Nazi singer are running for seats in Brussels. A special project by our partners Refresher, supported by Science+, looked at how extremist politicians target voters with fear and negative messages. Refresher highlighted candidates who attack migrants and members of the LGBTQ+ community, and some who are running on an openly racist platform. 

"This project, "Disinfo Figures on the Way to Brussels," is unique in its proactive engagement with audiences who are particularly vulnerable to disinformation,” said Dominika Stawarz, an audience analysis specialist with Free Press for Eastern Europe. “By focusing on Slovak anti-establishment figures running for MEP positions who use misinformation to attract voters, the project not only exposes these manipulative tactics but also fosters dialogue with the public. Collaborating with Transparency International Slovakia ensures a thorough analysis of the candidates' misleading statements and actions. The project aims to draw young people's attention to the upcoming European elections through engaging content like IG reels, TikTok videos, and infographics."

Stawarz added that, beyond mere exposure, it equips the audience, particularly the 16-35 age group, with critical skills to discern disinformation. Filip Minich, head of Refresher, also reflected on the outlet's experience with the project. "Maybe the lesson for us is that we can’t use the promo on meta platforms unless we’re registered", Minich said. "Also, debunking disinformation might be tricky in pre-election time and trigger more polarization in society."

TIPS FOR JOURNALISTS

  • Expect candidates across the continent to question the legitimacy of the results. The Guardian reported the bloc's disinformation crisis unit is anticipating such narratives for weeks after the vote. Address them in the context of your country's candidates.

  • In the current context, every attack on the European Union might be seen as a possible move by pro-Russian sources. Moscow is known to lampoon and misinterpret Brussels' bureaucracy, which may easily fuel anti-Western sentiment in split societies. While we cannot assert that the Kremlin is behind these hoaxes, it is important to consider how such narratives fit into the wider present environment.

  • Watch political influencers. They are playing a crucial role in swaying voters.

  • Create and promote educational content about the EU, its functions, policies, and benefits. Use various formats such as articles, infographics, and videos to reach a wider audience. 

  • Report on how EU policies and initiatives impact local communities. This makes the information more relatable and demonstrates the practical benefits of the EU.

 Thanks for reading! 

Narrative Break is a bi-weekly newsletter produced by Free Press for Eastern Europe sourcing the finest reporting, fact-checking, and research done by our partners within the Science+ Network. We encourage you to share or republish any of the featured stories, but please cross-link and tag the original source and authors. 

We welcome any feedback. Please send it to newsletter@fpee.eu 

Did someone forward you this newsletter? For learning more about Science+ and how to become part of the network, please reach out to science@fpee.eu
 

— The Narrative Break team


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